Impact of a trade war on Norway
The outlook for global trade remains uncertain, with Trump’s 90-day tariff grace period nearing its end. Norway finds itself in a uniquely vulnerable position for three key reasons:
1. Heavy export reliance: Exports account for ~47% of Norway's GDP, compared to only 11.6% for the US and 21.5% for Japan.
2. Export concentration: Norway's export economy is relatively uniform1, dominated by raw materials and in particular Oil & Gas
3. Trade position: Norway is vulnerable outside the EU, not necessarily included in continental Trade policies
The Norwegian export value was $168bn in 2024, with $101bn from Oil & Gas. Where are the value pools associated with the remaining $67bn and who are the companies?
Our model shows that this $67bn in exports drives approximately $15bn in domestic EBIT, of which:
~30% aquaculture and fishery - from large-scale salmon exporters to niche brands like King Oscar, the number-one selling canned mackerel in the US
~30 maritime and oil supply - ranging from Sleipner Motor thrusters to Mørenot longlines
~25% materials - mainly originating in affordable Norwegian electricity, but also wood and ores
~15% machinery and equipment to a wide range of industries, such as medical, industrial, defense, and consumer
Tariffs directly impact the bottom-line of these companies. The ability to withstand shocks depends on each company’s market environment and flexibility in shifting volumes. Curious about which companies are exposed or how the picture looks for other countries? Let’s talk.
1. Uniform = low economic complexity, according to the Economic Complexity Index defined by OEC World. Less complex economies rely on fewer and less differentiated goods in their exports
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